There is so much hype going on about how great Uber is. The data is clear: UberX drivers do not make as much as NYC cabbies do.

I also want to point out the big fallacy — UberBlack platforms do not compete with NYC taxis for fares. They compete with livery. Uber has not released information about UberX revenue in NYC.

We can only impute UberX revenue vs. The easiest way to compute an individual fare at any given time is to use uberestimate. In most instances, UberX will be cheaper during non-surge periods, and that is intentional — UberX aims to undercut NYC taxis, after all.

Thus, for the same travel, a taxi will earn more. The TLC reports that NYC taxis provide about , rides per day.

Dividing that number by the 13, NYC taxis means each cab gets about 32 rides per day. That means about 18 rides per 9.

Meanwhile, Uber released data for June and July in NYC showing each Uber driver had 1. So they have fewer rides per hour than a taxi, on average. Therefore, for the driver to earn more, those rides must generate more revenue than a taxi, either by trip length or charging surge pricing — and earn enough to make up for both the Uber commission they lose and the tip earned by a taxi driver. UberX is meant as a direct taxi replacement, not a taxi replacement for longer rides only.

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There is no way to predict when surges will occur, nor that a driver will get a surged fare. Nor can UberX drivers just wait around for surge fares, even in a zone that offers high expectation of one. As soon as the area is flooded with drivers seeking surge fares, by definition supply will increase and the surge pricing should vanish.

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